到1938年，这个词最初是个棒球术语；参见 second (adj.) + guess (n.)。
The expression second guess originated in big league baseball. In baseball, a man making a play has time only for one thought on that particular play. He must make up his mind in a flash how he is going to make the play. ... The expression came into the common speech because it so patly describes us fellows who sit back and analyze a wrong play after it has been made. [Damon Runyon, "The Brighter Side," Nov. 18, 1938]
“second guess” 这个表达最早源于职业棒球。在棒球比赛中，球员在执行一个动作时，脑海中只能有一个想法。他必须在瞬间决定自己将如何完成这个动作。……这个表达之所以被广泛使用，是因为它恰如其分地描述了那些在错误动作发生后坐在一旁分析的人。[Damon Runyon, "The Brighter Side," 1938年11月18日]
至少在报纸上，这个短语的记录似乎支持它源于棒球的说法。Second-guesser（1913年）是棒球俚语，指的是“那些大声质疑球员、经理等决策的球迷”。而从1899年起，guesser 或 baseball guesser 就在体育报道中用来指代“那些对即将到来的比赛或赛季进行推测和评论的球迷”。
Quisser is the new Texas league umpire. Guesser would be a better name for the majority of those who are now employed by president Allen. [El Paso Herald, June 14, 1911]
Quisser 是新任德克萨斯联赛的裁判。Guesser 这个名字更适合那些现在由艾伦主席雇佣的大多数人。[El Paso Herald, 1911年6月14日]
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